The “safe withdrawal rate” by duration and allocation
The highest withdrawal in the first year, as a percentage of the starting assets, that would have lasted to the end in every starting year. From the second year on, the amount rises with inflation.
After German tax
| Stocks / bonds | 20 years | 25 years | 30 years | 35 years | 40 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 % / 0 % | 4.0 % | 3.4 % | 3.1 % | 2.9 % | 2.8 % |
| 80 % / 20 % | 4.5 % | 3.7 % | 3.4 % | 3.2 % | 3.1 % |
| 60 % / 40 % | 4.9 % | 4.1 % | 3.7 % | 3.5 % | 3.4 % |
| 40 % / 60 % | 5.2 % | 4.4 % | 4.0 % | 3.7 % | 3.6 % |
| 20 % / 80 % | 5.6 % | 4.6 % | 4.2 % | 3.9 % | 3.7 % |
Before tax
| Stocks / bonds | 20 years | 25 years | 30 years | 35 years | 40 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 % / 0 % | 4.1 % | 3.5 % | 3.3 % | 3.1 % | 3.0 % |
| 80 % / 20 % | 4.7 % | 4.0 % | 3.7 % | 3.5 % | 3.4 % |
| 60 % / 40 % | 5.2 % | 4.4 % | 4.1 % | 3.9 % | 3.8 % |
| 40 % / 60 % | 5.6 % | 4.8 % | 4.5 % | 4.2 % | 4.1 % |
| 20 % / 80 % | 6.1 % | 5.2 % | 4.8 % | 4.5 % | 4.3 % |
30 years in detail
Besides the rate that would have lasted in every starting year: the rate that would have lasted in nine out of ten starting years, the rate of the middle starting year and the starting year with the lowest rate — after German tax.
| Stocks / bonds | In every starting year, before tax | In every starting year, after tax | In nine of ten starting years | Middle starting year (median) | Tightest starting year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 % / 0 % | 3.3 % | 3.1 % | 4.4 % | 7.0 % | 1961 |
| 80 % / 20 % | 3.7 % | 3.4 % | 4.5 % | 6.9 % | 1961 |
| 60 % / 40 % | 4.1 % | 3.7 % | 4.6 % | 6.7 % | 1961 |
| 40 % / 60 % | 4.5 % | 4.0 % | 4.6 % | 6.2 % | 1961 |
| 20 % / 80 % | 4.8 % | 4.2 % | 4.5 % | 5.8 % | 1961 |
How often would a fixed rate have lasted?
Over 30 years, after German tax: in how many of the 40 starting years the withdrawal would have lasted to the end.
| Stocks / bonds | 3.0 % | 3.5 % | 4.0 % | 4.5 % | 5.0 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 % / 0 % | 40 of 40 | 39 of 40 | 37 of 40 | 33 of 40 | 31 of 40 |
| 80 % / 20 % | 40 of 40 | 39 of 40 | 38 of 40 | 36 of 40 | 31 of 40 |
| 60 % / 40 % | 40 of 40 | 40 of 40 | 38 of 40 | 36 of 40 | 31 of 40 |
| 40 % / 60 % | 40 of 40 | 40 of 40 | 39 of 40 | 37 of 40 | 31 of 40 |
| 20 % / 80 % | 40 of 40 | 40 of 40 | 40 of 40 | 34 of 40 | 30 of 40 |
How it was calculated
Data: German stocks as total return with reinvested dividends from a scientific data series (1954 to 2013), then the returns of a DAX ETF. Ten-year German government bonds from the yields of a statistics office, calculated as a bond with a fixed coupon. Inflation from the consumer price indices of statistics offices. Common period: June 1956 to September 2026.
Calculation: for each starting year, the real sequence of months runs from January. Each month a fixed amount is withdrawn, rising every year with the inflation of that path; once a year the portfolio is rebalanced to the target allocation. The search is for the highest amount that would have lasted to the end — the “safe withdrawal rate” is the smallest of these across all starting years. Calculated with the same engine as the Monte Carlo simulation in the “Real start years” method.
Tax: German flat-rate tax (Abgeltungsteuer) with solidarity surcharge of 26.38 %, without church tax; partial exemption of 30 % on the equity share; saver's allowance of €1,000 per year; advance lump sum (Vorabpauschale) with the base rate of 3.2 % (2026). Withdrawals are net: enough is sold for the amount to arrive after tax. Starting assets: €500,000.
Limits of the study
- One country: German stocks and bonds developed differently from a globally diversified portfolio. With a global portfolio, the rates would have been different.
- Today's tax law for every year: the flat-rate tax has existed since 2009, partial exemption and the advance lump sum since 2018 — the calculation assumes they always applied. Shifts during the annual rebalancing are calculated without tax.
- No costs: account and fund costs are not deducted; with costs, the rates would be lower.
- The stock returns from 1977 to 2000 include the corporate tax credit of that time (around 1.4 percentage points per year); the bond yields before 1972 are probably based on the average yield of bonds outstanding.
- A look back, not a forecast: the figures show what would have lasted in the past — not whether a rate will last in the future.
Data to download
The rate of every starting year for all allocations and durations, before and after tax, as a CSV file. The results are published under the CC BY 4.0 licence: you may use them freely with attribution.
Suggested citation: Paperball Finance (2026): “Safe withdrawal rate” for euro investors — after German tax, as of 25 Oct 2026, https://www.paperball.finance/gb/english/research/safe-withdrawal-rate
Questions about the “safe withdrawal rate”
What is the “safe withdrawal rate”?
The share of the starting assets you could have withdrawn in the first year — then raised by inflation every year — without the portfolio running out before the end. “Safe” here means: in every starting year of the past, not guaranteed for the future.
Does the 4 percent rule also apply to euro investors?
The rule comes from US data over 30 years without tax. With 60 % German stocks and 40 % government bonds, 4.0 % over 30 years after German tax would have lasted in 38 of 40 starting years; 3.7 % would have lasted in every starting year.
How much does tax lower the withdrawal rate?
Depending on allocation and duration, by 3 % to 14 % of its value. Gains on sales and the advance lump sum are taxed; the saver's allowance softens this, more so for smaller assets.
How often is the study updated?
Once a year, in January, when the previous year is complete in the data. Each year adds one starting year per duration.