Golden Butterfly: return and risk in euros since 2009

In short

The “Golden Butterfly” allocation would have returned +7.47 % per year over the last 10 years up to 30 Oct 2026, +6.18 % after German tax. The largest decline from peak to trough in this period would have been -15.87 %.

Where the allocation comes from

A variation of the Permanent Portfolio from the Portfolio Charts website: 20% each in total market stocks, small-cap value stocks, long-term bonds, short-term bonds and gold. Here 40% global equities stand for both equity parts, plus 20% eurozone government bonds, 20% short-term government bonds and 20% gold.

Composition

ETFAsset classWeight
iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF (Dist)IE00B0M62Q58Stocks40 %
Xtrackers II Eurozone Government Bond UCITS ETF 1CLU0290355717Bonds20 %
iShares Euro Government Bond 1-3yr UCITS ETF (Dist)IE00B14X4Q57Bonds20 %
Xetra-GoldDE000A0S9GB0Gold20 %

Key figures by period

Rolling up to 30 Oct 2026: the most recent years in each case, the last column from the first common price of all ETFs on 13 Nov 2009. Before tax according to the standard of the Community-Backtests, below that the return after German tax.

Key figure1 year3 years5 years10 yearsSince 2009
CAGR+6.40 %+13.75 %+7.81 %+7.47 %+7.67 %
Volatility8.38 %7.43 %7.36 %7.16 %7.23 %
Maximum drawdown-6.07 %-8.85 %-9.34 %-15.87 %-15.87 %
Drawdown duration108 days143 days525 days525 days525 days
Sharpe ratio0.791.771.061.041.06
Sortino ratio1.172.611.511.461.50
Calmar ratio1.051.550.840.470.48
Ulcer Index1.701.843.543.073.04
CAGR after tax+4.75 %+11.14 %+6.19 %+6.18 %+6.49 %

Return by calendar year

Before tax, from the last price of the previous year to the last price of the year.

YearReturn
2025+13.46 %
2024+17.96 %
2023+11.71 %
2022-8.68 %
2021+12.84 %
2020+5.53 %
2019+17.86 %
2018-1.36 %
2017+2.62 %
2016+7.42 %
2015+4.80 %
2014+13.16 %
2013+3.59 %
2012+8.85 %
2011+2.42 %
2010+15.87 %

Growth of €10,000

Month end by month end, before tax, with distributions reinvested.

€10,000€18,554€27,108€35,662201020132016201920222025

How it is calculated

Building blocks: ETFs already available in every Watchlist — the same prices as in the Community-Backtests, updated every night, in euros. You can recalculate every allocation in the backtest with the same securities.

Before tax: starting value €10,000, without costs and taxes, distributions reinvested, back to the target allocation on the first trading day of every year. Risk-free rate for Sharpe and Sortino: 0 %.

After tax: the same calculation with €100,000 and German flat-rate tax of 26.38 % without church tax, partial exemption per ETF, saver's allowance of €1,000, advance lump sum and tax on gains when rebalancing; at the end of the period everything is sold. Gains on gold are taxed like capital gains — with Xetra-Gold they would be tax-free after one year, so the after-tax figure tends to be too low there.

All portfolios end on the last trading day of the previous month and are recalculated every month.

Descriptive, not a recommendation: this page shows how well-known allocations would have developed in the past. Which one suits you depends on your goals and your situation.

⚠ Notice: The results were calculated after the fact from historical prices. They do not show the performance of an actually managed portfolio. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Paperball does not provide investment advice or investment recommendations.

Calculated on 2 Nov 2026

Recalculate with your own securities

In the backtest you recalculate the “Golden Butterfly” allocation — or any other made of your securities — with your costs and your tax.