40/60 portfolio: return and risk in euros since 2008

In short

The “40/60 portfolio” allocation would have returned +4.70 % per year over the last 10 years up to 30 Oct 2026, +3.76 % after German tax. The largest decline from peak to trough in this period would have been -17.06 %.

Where the allocation comes from

The reverse of 60/40: more bonds than stocks. Such a portfolio usually fluctuates less, but depends more on interest rates and inflation.

Composition

ETFAsset classWeight
iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF (Dist)IE00B0M62Q58Stocks40 %
Xtrackers II Eurozone Government Bond UCITS ETF 1CLU0290355717Bonds60 %

Key figures by period

Rolling up to 30 Oct 2026: the most recent years in each case, the last column from the first common price of all ETFs on 2 Jan 2008. Before tax according to the standard of the Community-Backtests, below that the return after German tax.

Key figure1 year3 years5 years10 yearsSince 2008
CAGR+4.42 %+9.30 %+2.85 %+4.70 %+5.35 %
Volatility6.18 %6.32 %7.19 %7.11 %7.48 %
Maximum drawdown-4.24 %-9.42 %-17.06 %-17.06 %-17.06 %
Drawdown duration56 days166 days729 days729 days729 days
Sharpe ratio0.731.440.430.680.73
Sortino ratio1.142.150.600.931.02
Calmar ratio1.040.990.170.280.31
Ulcer Index1.251.987.935.945.21
CAGR after tax+3.28 %+7.54 %+1.93 %+3.76 %+4.54 %

Return by calendar year

Before tax, from the last price of the previous year to the last price of the year.

YearReturn
2025+3.52 %
2024+11.12 %
2023+12.00 %
2022-16.58 %
2021+10.88 %
2020+4.74 %
2019+16.29 %
2018-1.56 %
2017+2.93 %
2016+6.16 %
2015+5.10 %
2014+15.84 %
2013+9.64 %
2012+11.48 %
2011+0.57 %
2010+8.13 %
2009+12.58 %

Growth of €10,000

Month end by month end, before tax, with distributions reinvested.

€8,646€14,758€20,871€26,9832008201020132016201920222025

How it is calculated

Building blocks: ETFs already available in every Watchlist — the same prices as in the Community-Backtests, updated every night, in euros. You can recalculate every allocation in the backtest with the same securities.

Before tax: starting value €10,000, without costs and taxes, distributions reinvested, back to the target allocation on the first trading day of every year. Risk-free rate for Sharpe and Sortino: 0 %.

After tax: the same calculation with €100,000 and German flat-rate tax of 26.38 % without church tax, partial exemption per ETF, saver's allowance of €1,000, advance lump sum and tax on gains when rebalancing; at the end of the period everything is sold. Gains on gold are taxed like capital gains — with Xetra-Gold they would be tax-free after one year, so the after-tax figure tends to be too low there.

All portfolios end on the last trading day of the previous month and are recalculated every month.

Descriptive, not a recommendation: this page shows how well-known allocations would have developed in the past. Which one suits you depends on your goals and your situation.

⚠ Notice: The results were calculated after the fact from historical prices. They do not show the performance of an actually managed portfolio. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Paperball does not provide investment advice or investment recommendations.

Calculated on 2 Nov 2026

Recalculate with your own securities

In the backtest you recalculate the “40/60 portfolio” allocation — or any other made of your securities — with your costs and your tax.