Model portfolios: well-known allocations recalculated in euros
In short
8 well-known allocations of ETFs, recalculated every month with real prices in euros — before and after German tax. The table compares the last 10 years up to 30 Oct 2026.
The last 10 years compared
The same period for all: 31 Oct 2016 to 30 Oct 2026. The order is that of the list below, not a ranking.
| Portfolio | CAGR | CAGR after tax | Volatility | Maximum drawdown | Sharpe ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global equities | +12.33 % | +10.89 % | 15.02 % | -33.63 % | 0.85 |
| World portfolio 70/30 | +11.06 % | +9.74 % | 15.06 % | -33.11 % | 0.77 |
| 80/20 portfolio | +9.82 % | +8.46 % | 12.11 % | -27.64 % | 0.83 |
| 60/40 portfolio | +7.28 % | +6.07 % | 9.42 % | -21.54 % | 0.79 |
| 40/60 portfolio | +4.70 % | +3.76 % | 7.11 % | -17.06 % | 0.68 |
| Permanent Portfolio | +6.20 % | +5.00 % | 6.09 % | -11.90 % | 1.02 |
| All Weather portfolio | +5.28 % | +4.23 % | 6.45 % | -14.40 % | 0.83 |
| Golden Butterfly | +7.47 % | +6.18 % | 7.16 % | -15.87 % | 1.04 |
The portfolios
Global equities
100 % Stocks
One ETF on the MSCI World since 2008, recalculated monthly: return per year, volatility and largest loss, before and after German tax.
World portfolio 70/30
70 % Stocks · 30 % Stocks
70% MSCI World and 30% emerging markets since 2014, recalculated monthly: return, volatility and largest loss, before and after tax.
80/20 portfolio
80 % Stocks · 20 % Bonds
80% MSCI World and 20% euro government bonds since 2008, recalculated monthly: return, volatility and largest loss, before and after tax.
60/40 portfolio
60 % Stocks · 40 % Bonds
60% MSCI World and 40% euro government bonds since 2008, recalculated monthly: return, volatility and largest loss, before and after tax.
40/60 portfolio
40 % Stocks · 60 % Bonds
40% MSCI World and 60% euro government bonds since 2008, recalculated monthly: return, volatility and largest loss, before and after tax.
Permanent Portfolio
25 % Stocks · 25 % Bonds · 25 % Gold · 25 % Bonds
A quarter each in stocks, government bonds, gold and short-term bonds since 2009, recalculated monthly: return, volatility and largest loss.
All Weather portfolio
30 % Stocks · 55 % Bonds · 15 % Gold
30% stocks, 55% government bonds and 15% gold since 2009, based on Ray Dalio, recalculated monthly: return, volatility and loss.
Golden Butterfly
40 % Stocks · 20 % Bonds · 20 % Bonds · 20 % Gold
40% stocks, 40% government bonds and 20% gold since 2009, recalculated monthly: return, volatility and largest loss, before and after tax.
How it is calculated
Building blocks: ETFs already available in every Watchlist — the same prices as in the Community-Backtests, updated every night, in euros. You can recalculate every allocation in the backtest with the same securities.
Before tax: starting value €10,000, without costs and taxes, distributions reinvested, back to the target allocation on the first trading day of every year. Risk-free rate for Sharpe and Sortino: 0 %.
After tax: the same calculation with €100,000 and German flat-rate tax of 26.38 % without church tax, partial exemption per ETF, saver's allowance of €1,000, advance lump sum and tax on gains when rebalancing; at the end of the period everything is sold. Gains on gold are taxed like capital gains — with Xetra-Gold they would be tax-free after one year, so the after-tax figure tends to be too low there.
All portfolios end on the last trading day of the previous month and are recalculated every month.
Descriptive, not a recommendation: this page shows how well-known allocations would have developed in the past. Which one suits you depends on your goals and your situation.
Recalculate your own allocation
In the backtest you run every allocation of your securities through the past — with your costs and your tax.