Where the allocation comes from
Harry Browne described the Permanent Portfolio in the 1980s: a quarter each in stocks, long-term government bonds, gold and cash — for growth, recession, inflation and deflation. Here, cash is represented by an ETF on government bonds with one to three years to maturity, and the long bonds by an ETF on eurozone government bonds of all maturities.
Composition
| ETF | Asset class | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF (Dist)IE00B0M62Q58 | Stocks | 25 % |
| Xtrackers II Eurozone Government Bond UCITS ETF 1CLU0290355717 | Bonds | 25 % |
| Xetra-GoldDE000A0S9GB0 | Gold | 25 % |
| iShares Euro Government Bond 1-3yr UCITS ETF (Dist)IE00B14X4Q57 | Bonds | 25 % |
Key figures by period
Rolling up to 30 Oct 2026: the most recent years in each case, the last column from the first common price of all ETFs on 13 Nov 2009. Before tax according to the standard of the Community-Backtests, below that the return after German tax.
| Key figure | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | Since 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | +4.05 % | +12.23 % | +7.00 % | +6.20 % | +6.49 % |
| Volatility | 8.53 % | 7.00 % | 6.68 % | 6.09 % | 6.11 % |
| Maximum drawdown | -6.49 % | -6.49 % | -8.85 % | -11.90 % | -11.90 % |
| Drawdown duration | 171 days | 171 days | 458 days | 458 days | 458 days |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.51 | 1.69 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.73 | 2.48 | 1.51 | 1.44 | 1.51 |
| Calmar ratio | 0.62 | 1.89 | 0.79 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| Ulcer Index | 2.84 | 1.95 | 3.57 | 2.88 | 2.81 |
| CAGR after tax | +2.79 % | +9.72 % | +5.43 % | +5.00 % | +5.41 % |
Return by calendar year
Before tax, from the last price of the previous year to the last price of the year.
| Year | Return |
|---|---|
| 2025 | +14.93 % |
| 2024 | +16.19 % |
| 2023 | +9.74 % |
| 2022 | -7.38 % |
| 2021 | +8.01 % |
| 2020 | +5.62 % |
| 2019 | +14.73 % |
| 2018 | -0.37 % |
| 2017 | +1.41 % |
| 2016 | +6.59 % |
| 2015 | +3.35 % |
| 2014 | +11.42 % |
| 2013 | -0.66 % |
| 2012 | +8.01 % |
| 2011 | +3.86 % |
| 2010 | +15.31 % |
Growth of €10,000
Month end by month end, before tax, with distributions reinvested.
How it is calculated
Building blocks: ETFs already available in every Watchlist — the same prices as in the Community-Backtests, updated every night, in euros. You can recalculate every allocation in the backtest with the same securities.
Before tax: starting value €10,000, without costs and taxes, distributions reinvested, back to the target allocation on the first trading day of every year. Risk-free rate for Sharpe and Sortino: 0 %.
After tax: the same calculation with €100,000 and German flat-rate tax of 26.38 % without church tax, partial exemption per ETF, saver's allowance of €1,000, advance lump sum and tax on gains when rebalancing; at the end of the period everything is sold. Gains on gold are taxed like capital gains — with Xetra-Gold they would be tax-free after one year, so the after-tax figure tends to be too low there.
All portfolios end on the last trading day of the previous month and are recalculated every month.
Descriptive, not a recommendation: this page shows how well-known allocations would have developed in the past. Which one suits you depends on your goals and your situation.
Calculated on 2 Nov 2026